Declining monsoon and its effect on India.

India (and other monsoon dependent countries) are particularly vulnerable to climate turbulence because a disturbance in the rainfall timing and pattern and the total amount of water received during the monsoon period is a significant factor in India’s food self-sufficiency.

The health of the monsoon essentially determines the amount of rice,  India’s major staple food,  that will be produced. India’s monsoon period has been on average 100 days long. This is the period during which the country receives almost all the water it will get from rainfall. The monsoon period is already reduced by about 15 days so in effect the total amount of water we are getting has also gone down by some 15 %. This is having serious implications already and the situation is likely to worsen in the coming years.

Water, food supply and impact its on food importing country.

As our own experience with the south west monsoon shows us, the weather is getting increasingly uncertain. There are floods and droughts in unexpected locations, at unexpected times. Climate shocks, particularly droughts which are becoming more frequent now and occurring in unlikely locations, have caused the most upheavals in global food supplies.

The American Midwest is the world’s greatest producer of maize and soybean. The drought of 1988/89 swept through the maize-soya belt of the US. This resulted in a loss of 12 % of global maize supply, which meant maize eating food importing countries had lesser maize to import at higher prices.

The widespread drought of 2002/03, hit wheat production in Russia, Europe, India and China, resulting in a 6% reduction  in global wheat supply. At the same time, the 2002/03 drought hit rice production in India , causing a decline of 4% in rice output. When there is a shortfall in global food stocks, the biggest casualties are food importing countries that are dependent on imported food.

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Growing demand of food and reducing productivity of land.

The world is demanding more food each day. This is principally due to the demands of a growing population but also because people by and large are getting wealthier and want more and better food. Coinciding with this growing demand for food is the phenomenon of climate change which has already begun to threaten food output and reduce the amount of food available.

These two simultaneous developments are threatening the stability of the global food system. On the one hand climate turbulence , chiefly floods and droughts slash away the expected harvests of major staple foods like rice, wheat and corn so that there is less available. On the other hand, a ‘getting wealthier’ class of people in both developing and developed countries is wanting and able to eat better, especially meat and other animal products like butter, ghee, cream, cheese etc.

All this is putting a lot of pressure on the land , leading to more and more intensive farming practices, using chemicals to extract the maximum out of plants and animals. So you have an overdosing of the land with chemical fertilizers to put in chemical nutrients rather than allow natural organic nutrients to build up in the soil. Along with this comes the excessive use of toxic chemical pesticides to kill the pests that follow intensive chemical farming because their natural predators that keep them in check are dead.