Economic and Political Weekly (2019)
Vol. 54, No. 28
The ravages of climate
change will be particularly harsh in South Asia and India, posing serious
challenges to its agriculture and related livelihoods and to its food and
nutrition security. Though the high level of uncertainty about its
manifestation makes it difficult to deal with climate change, one of the most
effective tools to deal with it is agro-biodiversity. It is important to move
away from an exclusive focus on techno-fixes and towards time-tested resources
like genetic diversity and indigenous knowledge.
Climate
change is upon us. The bad news is that there are winners and losers in the
climate change game. The worse news is that South Asia, especially India, is
likely to bear the worst brunt of climate change on its agriculture.
Agriculture production will be affected by factors like higher temperatures,
uncertain and reduced water availability, reduced soil fertility, increased
incidences of floods and droughts, and different kinds of pests and diseases.
Crops, livestock, and fisheries are all going to be affected by these sudden,
unpredictable changes.
With
respect to agriculture and food production, those who destroyed the environment
and laid the foundation of global warming, the “polluters” in other words, will
be its greatest beneficiaries. In a perverse reversal of natural justice, the
polluter instead of paying, will get paid. There is a threat that the fertile
regions like India and others in South Asia, which are currently three crop
zones, will get reduced to one crop zones in many parts. Whereas large tracts
of Europe which are essentially one crop zones today, will become two or maybe
three crop zones. This is patently unjust, but there it is.
According
to studies (Parry et al 2004; Parry et al 2007), rising temperatures will
result in as much as 10% to 40% reduction in crop production by 2080–2100.
Indian studies (Aggarwal and Sinha 1993; Saseendran et al 2000) show that for
every 1Âșc rise in temperature, wheat production will go down by four to five
million tonnes. Additional studies (Aggarwal et al 2000) show that rice yields
have been decreasing in the Indo–Gangetic belt, as also in the Philippines
(Peng et al 2004). Other crops like mustard, peas, tomato, onion and garlic,
all show a decline in yields as temperatures rise. The increased carbon dioxide
(CO2) in the atmosphere due to global warming
could result in higher levels of photosynthesis, and hence some yield advantage
in certain crops like wheat, rice, and soybean (Long et al 2005). However, this
advantage is likely to be nullified by the much higher temperatures that will
accompany the CO2
increase (Aggarwal 2008).
increase (Aggarwal 2008).
Knowledge
of Varied Varieties
So
how do we cope with the onslaught of climate change and its impact on food
security? The best bet appears to be agro-biodiversity and the indigenous
knowledge associated with it. Agro-
biodiversity or the genetic diversity of crop plants becomes a valuable resource only if its properties are known. Fortunately for us, our farming and tribal communities have retained a significant amount of knowledge about the properties of different crop varieties. This knowledge is accessed by scientists when they are looking for varieties with certain traits, for example, drought tolerance, to breed new varieties. The farming community knows which varieties are drought or flood tolerant, which are early or late maturing, which varieties are resistant or vulnerable to specific pests or diseases, etc.
biodiversity or the genetic diversity of crop plants becomes a valuable resource only if its properties are known. Fortunately for us, our farming and tribal communities have retained a significant amount of knowledge about the properties of different crop varieties. This knowledge is accessed by scientists when they are looking for varieties with certain traits, for example, drought tolerance, to breed new varieties. The farming community knows which varieties are drought or flood tolerant, which are early or late maturing, which varieties are resistant or vulnerable to specific pests or diseases, etc.
Our
genetic diversity is still formidable despite our negligence in allowing it to
be destroyed. At one stage, it is estimated, India, which is the birthplace of
rice, had close to 3,00,000 varieties of this crop. A diminished number is
still being conserved by farming communities in different parts of the
country and fortunately, many are conserved in national and international
gene banks. Similarly, Mexico, which is the birthplace of maize, has hundreds
of varieties of it carrying a range of valuable traits that will help to
overcome production challenges thrown up by climate change.
This
genetic diversity of any crop is a valuable tool to cope with climate
turbulence and the kinds of stresses it brings. China, which is the birthplace
of soybean, can use its genetic diversity of soybean to find varieties that
will allow it to cope with such stresses or other problematic conditions. Wheat
originated in what is modern-day Iraq and Middle East, the region of the
Tigris–Euphrates basin. The many varieties of wheat found in these areas will
help local farmers to tide over the flood, drought or new pests and diseases,
with varieties that are adapted to such situations.
How
do we have this genetic wealth, and who has created and maintained it? It
is the farming communities of the country that have created and maintained
this genetic diversity. Over millennia, farmers have faced adverse
situations like disease, pest attacks, high heat and drought, floods and
excessive humidity, salinity or acidic soils. Every time they have faced adversity,
they have noted that although some
varieties of the crop went under, others survived.
varieties of the crop went under, others survived.
Farmers
had the wisdom to save these varieties, knowing that adverse weather conditions
would come again. Similarly, they have seeds of varieties that mature early or
late or in between, can grow submerged in deep water as the rice varieties of
Bihar, or in extremely saline soils as in the Sundarbans. The farmers of
Rajasthan have crop diversity suited to extremely high heat and arid conditions
of the desert and the farmers of Ladakh have maintained crop varieties that can
withstand the biting cold and low moisture conditions of that cold desert area.
It
is now known that the traditional farming practice of planting a mixture of
varieties (never a monocrop) had a sound scientific basis. Scientific proof
that genetic diversity controls crop disease comes from a study done in Yunnan,
China. This showed that when rice fields were planted with a mixture of
varieties, the incidence of disease decreased significantly. When this was done
year for year, the fields became practically disease-free (Zhu et al 2000).
Irrespective
of the googly that climate change throws at us, be it high heat, low moisture,
unusual cold or untimely pests and disease, it is likely that we will find
suitable varieties that are adapted to such conditions. Scientists need to look
at this repository of genetic diversity and chances are that they will find
varieties to deploy in the altered weather conditions brought about by climate
change, and keep agriculture viable in the face of these new stressors.
Changing
Pest Profiles
It
is not just crop cycles that will go awry with changes in the climate. The fear
is also from the new pests and diseases that will affect our crops. Pests and
pathogens may come at unexpected times and throw existing crop protection
strategies to the wind. Farmers know the pests and diseases that are likely to
affect their crops. They also know in which seasons these will possibly
manifest, so they have had appropriate coping strategies. Unfortunately,
Integrated Pest Management has been given the go-by in official circles, and
instead, tonnes of poisonous pesticides get recommended to the farmer. But even
these come with a package of practices and a seasonality that is now often not
in tune with the changes in pest profile and the timing of the pest/disease
attacks. For instance, unseasonal rain and unexpected humidity will suddenly
invite pests and diseases like fungal wilt which were hitherto not known in
that period.
What
is apparent is that the uncertainty and unpredictability associated with
climate change make preparedness difficult (Chalam and Khetarpal 2010). This
coupled with our scanty knowledge of insect and pathogen behaviour and the wide
range of pests present in tropical countries, compounds the problem.
Nevertheless, there are some indicators. Studies show that cereals become more
susceptible to rust diseases as temperatures increase and an early onset of
summer could cause fungal diseases like “late blight” to appear early, thus
increasing the potential for more severe epidemics. Warmer temperatures are
also helpful to pests improving their survival rates and increasing their
geographical range which results in their overall larger numbers (Coakley et al
1999; Khetarpal and Chalam 2008).
Similarly,
moisture changes affect the appearance and behaviour of disease-causing
pathogens. For instance, higher humidity makes pathogens, such as late blight
and root rot in vegetables, extend their damage, and also increases their
virulence. On the other hand, powdery mildew species which can attack crops as
diverse as grapes, cucumbers, mango, and wheat are not so aggressive at lower
moisture levels. Increased concentrations of CO2, similar to temperature and humidity, also create
unpredictable impacts on pest and pathogen performance. Higher CO2 levels combined with higher photosynthesis can cause
physiological changes in the host plant that can increase resistance to pests,
but other impacts could include faster evolution in the insect pests which
helps them to overcome the host’s resistance.
The
evolution of new pests and pathogens, changes in pest–pathogen virulence, and
altered timings of pest and disease attacks are all features of pest and
disease behaviour under changed climatic conditions. It has become imperative
to have early warning systems in place that can detect pest and disease changes
in time to enable preventive or control actions. In addition, we will have
to reintroduce Integrated Pest Management as a dominant pest control strategy.
India’s wealth of indigenous knowledge about pest and disease control
should be revived. The strategy to use friendly insects should be restored
because they attack disease-causing organisms without causing environmental harm.
Animal
Husbandry
Apart
from crops, an integral part of Indian agriculture is animal husbandry. This is
of special relevance to small farmers and landless agriculture labourers who
depend on animal outputs for their income. Although small ruminants like sheep
and goats are popular, it is largely cattle and buffaloes that bring assured
incomes, because of the milk chains that have been set up to collect milk
practically from the farmer’s doorstep. Dairying gives landless agriculture
labour 2.5 times more returns than crop-based agriculture.
India
is the world’s largest producer of milk. The milk revolution is based on
high-performance cattle like the crossbreds of Holstein-Friesian and Jersey.
Although they are good milk yielders, such cattle are also extremely sensitive
to high heat and water stress and are thus very vulnerable to climate change.
Climate change reduces the performance of hybrid cattle significantly due
to a number of reasons. These are raised body temperature and increased
panting, lowered feed intake and lower metabolic efficiency which results in
lower nutrient utilisation by the animal. This, in turn, reduces milk yield and
milk quality. Milk yield in such cattle can go down by as much as 40%.
Drinking water demand, already high, rises when it is hot, and is not always
easy to meet in dryland areas.
The
answer to coping with climate change and maintaining dairying incomes also
comes from animal genetic diversity. India has a number of indigenous cattle
and buffalo breeds adapted to the hot, dusty conditions of scrub and dryland
agriculture. Such animals have a low water requirement, have good tolerance to
high temperatures and are resistant to many diseases. Compared to the sensitive
hence vulnerable cross-bred cattle, indigenous breeds are hardy and far better
equipped to withstand the ravages brought about by a changing climate. Our
strategy to maintain milk output should be to deploy locally adapted cattle and
buffalo breeds and protect and enhance their performance. Careful genetic
selection to pick out high performers in the native breeds, as well as breed
improvement programmes should be undertaken without losing any genetic
diversity (Garg 2010).
The
Sahiwal cows of Punjab and the Murrah buffalo of Punjab and Haryana, the Gir,
Kankrej cattle as well as Jafarabadi and Surti buffalo from Gujarat, as
also the Tharparkar and Rathi cows of Rajasthan will continue to yield well in
dry areas. Similarly, the Red Kanthar and Deoni cattle breeds of Maharashtra
and the Pandharpuri buffalo can be adapted in dairy units with similar climates.
There are several other breeds classified as “nondescript” that have valuable
genetic properties and strong adaptive features which make them important milch
cattle in a period of climate turbulence. Some indigenous cattle breeds like
the Gir, Sindhi, Tharparkar, and Sahiwal are reasonably high-yielding but many
well-adapted native breeds are low milk yielders. Scientific research is being
used to improve milk output despite temperature stress by balancing the feed,
increasing protein and fat in the feed mixtures and adding location-suited
mineral mixtures.
In
Conclusion
Clearly,
the challenge before India is to adapt as fast as possible to the unpredictable
and largely negative changes in the climate that are threatening its food and
nutrition security, as well as the livelihoods of its people. One of
the greatest assets we have in combating the impacts of uncertain,
unpredictable weather/climate is agro-biodiversity. This great resource of
genetic wealth, enviable in its range and sophistication should be one of
the main pillars to rest our adaptation strategies on and yet, it remains
neglected and abandoned by the scientific research establishment of the
country.
Genetic
diversity distributes risk and the greater the genetic variability in hand, the
better the coping capacity of farmers. Genetic diversity gives all species the
ability to adapt to changing environments and combat biotic and abiotic
stresses like pests, disease, drought and flood, salinity and submergence. It
has become more important than ever to collect and conserve as much
agro-biodiversity as possible, of plants, animals, and fish, and bring it into
breeding programmes and direct use.
It
is telling that the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture highlights the
use of biotechnology, that is, genetically modified (GM) crops to adapt to
climate change but fails to mention agro-biodiversity as an important coping
strategy. We need to correct this mindless techno-fix approach and look at the
time-tested resources like genetic diversity and indigenous knowledge that has
delivered solutions in the past and will do so again. The farmers over
millennia have faced adverse situations before; and they have the tools to face
these again.
References
Aggarwal,
P K (2008): “Global Climate Change and Indian Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation
and Mitigation,” Indian Journal of Agricultural Science, Vol 78, No
10, pp 911–19.
Aggarwal,
P K and S K Sinha (1993): “Effect of Probable Increase in Carbon Dioxide and
Temperature on Wheat Yields in India,” Journal of Agricultural
Meteorology, Vol 48, No 5, pp 811–14.
Aggarwal,
P K, S K Bandyopadhyay, H Pathak, N Kalra, S Chander and S Kumar (2000):
“Analysis of the Yield Trends of Rice-Wheat System in North-Western
India,” Outlook on Agriculture, Vol 29, No 4, pp 259–68.
Chalam,
V C and R K Khetarpal (2010): “Coping with Changing Pest Profiles in a
Changing Climate,” paper presented in the national conference on Ensuring
Food Security in a Changing Climate, New Delhi, 23–24 April.
Coakley,
S M, H Scherm and S Chakraborty (1999): “Climate Change and Plant Disease
Management,” Annual Review of Phytopathology, Vol 37, pp 399–426.
Garg,
M R (2010): “Managing Livestock in a Changing Climate,” paper presented in the
national conference on Ensuring Food Security in a Changing Climate, New Delhi,
23–24 April.
Khetarpal,
R K and V C Chalam (2008): “Management of the Climate Related Disease and
Pest-risk in Agriculture,” paper presented in the extra-ordinary meeting of the
SAARC Agricultural Ministers, New Delhi, 5 November.
Long,
S P, E A Ainsworth, A D B Leakey and P B Morgan (2005): “Global Food
Insecurity: Treatment of Major Food Crops with Elevated Carbon Dioxide or Ozone
Under Large-scale Fully Open-air Conditions Suggests Recent Models May Have
Overestimated Future Yields,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society of London, Series B, Biological Sciences, Vol 360,
No 1463, pp 2011–20.
Parry,
M L, C Rosenzweig, A Iglesias, M Livermore and G Fischer (2004): “Effects of
Climate Change on Global Food Production under SRES Emissions and
Socio-economic Scenarios,” Global Environmental Change, Vol 14, No
1, pp 53–67.
Parry,
M L, O F Canziani, J P Palutikof, P J van der Linden and C E Hanson (eds)
(2007): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.
Peng,
S, J Huang, J E Sheehy, R C Laza, R M Visperas, X Zhong, C S Centeno, G S Khush
and K G Cassman (2004): “Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from
Global Warming,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science,
Vol 101, No 27, pp 9971–75.
Saseendran,
S A, K K Singh, L S Rathore, S V Singh, and S K Singh (2000): “Effects of Climate
Change on Rice Production in the Tropical Humid Climate of Kerala,
India,” Climatic Change, Vol 44, No 4, pp 495–514.
Zhu Y, H Chen, J Fan, Y
Wang, L Yan et al (2000): “Genetic Diversity and Disease Control in
Rice,” Nature, 406, pp 718–22.
Suman Sahai (mail@genecampaign.org) is with the Gene Campaign, New Delhi, a
research and advocacy organisation working on issues related to food,
nutrition, and livelihoods.
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