Climate studies show that extreme
rainfall events would increase over the Indian subcontinent and that the
Himalayan range is vulnerable. Despite these predictions, the Himalayan states
are unprepared for such climate eventualities.
I left Srinagar a week before the floods. Passing by
the Zero Kadal, Srinagar’s oldest bridge across
the Jhelum I had remarked that the river was
reduced to a nallah and if this was its appearance in the monsoon season, the
health of the river was grim. Then within days the waters swelled and the Jhelum burst its banks.
Similar floods had hit Uttarakhand
a year ago, in June 2013, centered around the Kedar Valley,
involving the Alaknanda and Mandakini rivers. Heavy rain followed by flash
floods caused large-scale destruction of life and property. The sad part is
that in the truest sense of the expression, the disasters in Kedarnath and Kashmir were man-made. The combined effects of utter
administrative failure and human greed enabling rampant, unauthorised
construction across natural water channels and flood plains resulted in the
devastation we saw in both places. Climate change is causing more and more
extreme weather events like sudden storms and cyclones as well as cloudbursts
accompanied by torrential rain and floods, but governments can prepare for
these. People can be evacuated in time, relief and rescue can be planned ahead,
preparations can be made to ensure availability of drinking water, food
rations, medicines and clothing. All this was done by the Orissa government in
preparation for Cyclone Phailin that struck the state in October 2013 so the impact
of the cyclone was contained.
It’s not as though there have not
been sufficient warnings about the potential for flooding in the Kashmir Valley. The Indian National Trust for
Art and Cultural Heritage (INTACH) in Jammu and Kashmir
had noted in 2009 that construction in the low-lying areas of Srinagar,
especially along the banks of the Jhelum, had
blocked the discharge channels of the river. The INTACH report predicted that
natural disasters in the Kashmir
Valley could cause
widespread devastation. Recommendations for action to mitigate the danger were
submitted to the government but nothing happened.
In 2010, a study done by the
Jammu and Kashmir Flood Control Department predicted a major flood that would
inundate Srinagar.
The government ignored the warnings of the experts because the concerned
minister considered the prediction of a flood in the Jhelum
needlessly alarmist. Such a position can only stem from ignorance about the Kashmir region where floods have been a recurrent feature
for at least a 100 years. Praveen Swami has traced the history of flooding in Srinagar in his article in a newspaper and shown how
floods have regularly visited Srinagar
since 1893. Unfortunately, the lessons of earlier disasters did not make a
sufficient impression on successive governments for them to do anything to
protect their beautiful city and its people. In 2012, the Jammu
and Kashmir office of the National Disaster Management Authority
(NDMA) again predicted that massive flooding in Jammu and Kashmir was a distinct
possibility. To this too, there was no administrative response.
Construction continues unabated.
Despite expert advice, hydropower stations are being built without any
evaluation of vulnerability and disaster potential. The hydro power projects on
the Jhelum in Ganderbal and on the Chenab in
Sach Khas are both examples of haphazard construction. Uttarakhand has gone the
same way and suffered for it. Some 70 hydro power projects are planned on the
Alaknanda and Mandakini rivers. If these projects go ahead, further disasters
are likely.
Granted that hindsight is always
20/20 and everyone is cleverer after the event but the warnings about flooding
in the Kashmir Valley have been many and government
response has not been visible. Given the heavy and sustained rains this time,
flooding was perhaps inevitable but the level of devastation was not. Three
days before Srinagar was flooded, the Jhelum in Anantnag had already risen alarmingly high.
High enough to warn the state administration of impending trouble in Srinagar and yet the
government did not act to prepare the city for the coming floods and
inundation.
Shockingly Jammu and Kashmir is the only state in the
country that does not have monitoring centres to warn about rising levels in
the rivers and lakes that dot this flood-prone region. A Central government
proposal to set up flood monitoring stations has been pending for more than
five years without the state government taking any action. The Jhelum is boxed in by urban settlements and the lakes
into which excess water drains are very close to towns so there is little lead
time to prepare for floods. All the more reason that a well-coordinated,
efficient flood monitoring system was put in place.
Partisan politics has contributed
its share to the misery in Kashmir. The
state’s NDMA which should have been preparing for and managing the disaster,
was rendered defunct because the Modi government had secured the resignation of
eight members of the NDMA, including the chairperson because they had been
appointed by the earlier United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. This has
cost the people of Kashmir hugely.
Climate studies clearly show that
extreme rainfall events would increase over the Indian subcontinent and that
the Himalayan range is particularly vulnerable. Despite these predictions, the
Himalayan states are unprepared for such climate eventualities. We saw this in
Uttarakhand in 2013 and now in Kashmir in
2014. Climate preparedness has to become an important part of all development
planning, particularly in the susceptible mountain and coastal areas.
Political leaders and the
bureaucratic machinery must be educated about climate change and its disaster
potential. The lessons of Kedarnath and Kashmir
are evident and they must be taken to heart by planners in the Central and
state governments. There must be a comprehensive review of the development path
that the country has set itself on. There will have to be radical changes in
the philosophy of “growth at all costs” to ensure that the ecology is not destroyed
beyond redemption. Nature has a way of hitting back when pushed beyond a point.
We finally have to acknowledge that our planet has limits which must be
respected if people want a secure existence.
Source: Asian Age, 11 October
2014