📍THE BITTER IRONY OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change alters rainfall patterns and temperature regimes. This in turn influences local water balance and disturbs the optimal cultivation period for particular crops, known as the Length of Growing Period or LGP. According to climate forecasts, land with good LGP will decrease by over 51 million hectare worldwide.

Adequate LGP is required to ensure that medium to long duration crops can successfully grow to maturity. Some crop varieties mature quickly and are ready for use in a shorter period (short duration varieties). Others, especially most cereals, require a longer duration to mature. When the LGP in an agro climatic zone is long, a variety of crops from short duration to long duration can be cultivated there throughout the growing season. This means higher food production. When on the other hand, the LGP contracts, the growing season is shortened, fewer crops can be cultivated thus reducing food production.

Most climate models predict large increases in the LGP of today’s temperate and arctic regions. This means that temperate regions that are currently one crop zones (growing just one crop per year) will become two crop zones (growing two crops per year), resulting in a doubling of food production there.

On the other hand, almost half the production potential of tropical countries like India could be lost. The biggest blow to food production is expected to come from the loss of multiple cropping zones. The worst hit areas are predicted to be those where favorable weather allows farmers to take two to three crops in a year. These areas are predicted to turn into single crop zones, where only one crop can be taken in a year because the LGP will have shrunk or shifted In a perverse irony, the develop/ temperate countries will experience an increase in agriculture production as temperate regions get warmer. 

The regions which because of their industrialization and huge emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) are responsible for wrecking the climate will actually end up being its beneficiaries. On the other hand, today’s developing world in the tropics, which has not contributed to creating this climate hazard, will be its worst victim, and will suffer a loss in agriculture productivity, with serious consequences for food availability and hunger.

We have seen for some years now how climate change is not just altering the Himalayan landscape; it is changing the disease profile of the mountains too. 

Warmer winters, shrinking snowfall and changing rainfall patterns have changed the ecosystem so radically that vector borne diseases practically unknown at higher altitudes till now are becoming increasingly visible. Mosquitoes carrying malaria, dengue and chikungunya are now able to survive in the warmer higher altitudes where these diseases were once rare. 

👉 In Jammu & Kashmir, dengue cases almost doubled from 1,709 in 2021 to 3,381 in 2025, while suspected chikungunya cases surged from 7 to 773 during the same period. Himachal Pradesh, which reported no chikungunya cases in 2021, recorded over 200 cases in 2025.

This should be a wake-up call. Mountain communities are now confronting new types of diseases and local health systems do not necessarily have the experience to deal with such outbreaks. Climate adaptation can no longer be viewed solely through the lens of infrastructure or disaster preparedness. Public health systems in the Himalayan states must adapt by strengthening disease surveillance, expanding diagnostic capacity, training healthcare personnel and preparing for outbreaks of dengue, malaria and other climate-triggered diseases.

The challenge does not end there; climate change is also eroding biodiversity, traditional crops and resilient farming systems that have sustained mountain communities for generations. As I have said repeatedly, agrobiodiversity and indigenous knowledge are among our strongest tools for coping with a rapidly changing climate.

There is a clear message here: climate change is no longer a thing of the future. It is rewriting the region's health, agriculture and ecological challenges. Our adaptation policies will have to keep pace with the rate of climate turbulence.

This year’s heat alarm went off with the mercury touching 48.2°C in Banda in the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh. This weather record must be treated as a shrill warning of dire things to come if we even now refuse to acknowledge that the consequences of global warning are going to border on catastrophic. And we better put adaptation strategies in place NOW.  

Schools shutting at 10 a.m., deserted streets, collapsing livelihoods, and the poor struggling to survive outdoors are no longer isolated episodes. They are signs of the widespread climate catastrophe that our country has entered without preparation, without safeguards, and worst of all, without seriousness. The May 2026 report on Banda’s extraordinary heatwave wasn’t just a weather report of a town; it is the evidence of decades of ecological neglect.

Bundelkhand has always been ecologically fragile, but decades of environmental degradation have pushed the region towards collapse. Deforestation, shrinking water bodies, relentless groundwater extraction, destruction of traditional tanks and ponds, declining tree cover and unsustainable agricultural practices have combined with global warming to create lethal conditions. Concrete expansion without ecological planning has intensified local heat islands. Rivers are drying earlier, soils are losing moisture-retaining capacity, and farming systems have become increasingly vulnerable. Heatwaves that were once occasional are now prolonged, harsher and more frequent.

This is exactly how climate change enters and affects human life; not dramatically in a single moment, but steadily, silently and then suddenly all at once. For years, climate change remained confined to policy seminars, global summits and bureaucratic reports. It was discussed in air-conditioned conference halls as if it were a distant future concern. That illusion no longer survives. Climate change is now inside our homes, affecting our health, livelihoods, food systems and daily survival. The poor laborer working outdoors, the farmer watching crops shrivel, the child unable to attend school because of unbearable heat, the elderly struggling through sleepless nights without cooling, are the real faces of global warming.

Extreme heat is not just uncomfortable, it is deadly. It accelerates water scarcity, destroys crops, reduces labour productivity, worsens malnutrition, and increases disease burdens. Urban centres become furnaces because trees have disappeared and wetlands have been buried under the concrete of development projects. Rural distress intensifies as rainfall becomes erratic and farming turns uncertain. Climate change is now directly linked to food insecurity, indebtedness and migration.

The science behind this crisis has been understood for years. What has been missing is political urgency and the failure to acknowledge ecological wisdom. Sustained work by scientists over decades has tried to draw attention to the fact that tampering with the ecological foundations of food and livelihood security will spell disaster. Repeated warnings were issued about the dangers of destroying biodiversity, replacing resilient local farming systems with monocultures, eroding traditional seed diversity and neglecting community- based natural resource management. We have known since long that bio resources and genetic diversity are not academic concepts but survival tools in an age of climatic uncertainty. But we have not acted.

Despite plenty of evidence that climate shocks would hit the poor the hardest because their survival is directly tied to natural resources — land, forests, water and biodiversity, development policies continued to privilege short-term gains over ecological stability. Rivers were treated as engineering projects, forests as real estate, and agriculture as an industrial input-output exercise divorced from nature.

And here we see the results unfolding before our eyes. Banda is not an exception, it is a warning about other events that are underway. Similar conditions are emerging across large parts of India; from Himalayan regions witnessing glacial instability to coastal belts facing cyclones and salinity intrusion; from drought-prone interiors to cities collapsing under extreme heat. We see that unabated construction is rampant in mountain states like

Himachal and Uttarakhand despite nature’s constant warnings. The climate crisis has moved from planning and prediction to lived reality today. The tragedy is that even now, responses remain fragmented and cosmetic. Responses are devoid of any ecological understanding We have plantation drives with abysmal survival rates of what was planted, infrastructure expansion without environmental safeguards, and climate rhetoric devoid of meaningful applicability. This will will not address the magnitude of the crisis we are facing. What is needed is a fundamental shift in planning the future, helping forests to regenerate, biodiversity conservation , ecological restoration, water security and climate-resilient agriculture rooted in local knowledge systems, these are the things we need.

Unfortunately, it appears that those responsible for shaping policy are still not listening with the seriousness the crisis demands. Nature’s warning signals have become impossible to ignore. The question is whether society and governments will act before ecological breakdown becomes irreversible. Banda’s unbearable heat is not just a temperature statistic; it is the sound of an ecological alarm bell ringing across India. What is truly heart breaking is that those least responsible for the crisis are paying the heaviest price.

https://open.substack.com/pub/sumansahai/p/48-degrees-c-in-banda-up-is-a-warning?r=6oq097&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Forest Fires On The Rise In A Warming India: Make It Part Of Climate Policy

In the 405th report of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Science and Technology, Environment, Forests and Climate Change, the demand for grants included a section on Forest Fire Prevention and Management. This must be welcomed given the growing forest fires in India, especially in the mountain states.

India’s forests are increasingly vulnerable due to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells and extreme weather events. These are no longer abstract projections; they are now visible on the ground as devastating forest fires. Forests that were once naturally moist and resilient are now like tinderboxes.

Forest fires are now frequent and have a devastating impact on biodiversity, wildlife and the overall environment. Forests in Uttarakhand used to catch fire in the dry summer season every year, but now occur at other times as well. I have watched with despair fires as early as February and March, sometimes earlier. The forest department recorded over 60 fires in the February- March period, that scorched over 40 hectares of forest land. Repeated fires also weaken the regenerative capacity of forests, making them more vulnerable to future climate shocks.

Climate scientists have warned for decades if we can’t control global warming, wildfires will become more frequent and more intense. Now wildfires are becoming more and widespread, even in tropical rainforests, where they are not typical and are particularly damaging. Hotter, drier weather caused by climate change and poor land management create conditions for more frequent, larger and higher-intensity wildfires. In the heatwave of Summer 2026, large forest fires have become frequent, and have burnt large tracts in over 12 states — from Uttarakhand in the north, Gujarat in the west, to Andhra Pradesh in the south, with Madhya Pradesh being the worst-affected.

Focusing on the Himalayan belt, the standing committee recommended that the ministry develop a protocol to reduce and cope with forest fires using modern technologies, including satellites and drones for early detection and alerts, identifying the cause and nature of the fires, and the best way of dousing the flames. Even more welcome, the committee recommended adequate budgetary support to state governments to develop a proactive, AI and data-driven prevention and management approach to minimise ecological damage due to forest fires.

Traditional forest management systems are proving inadequate against the scale and speed of climate-driven fires. This is where Artificial Intelligence can become an important tool for timely action. Globally, AI is already being used for forest fire prediction and prevention. In California, the “Alert California” programme uses AI-enabled cameras and machine learning systems to identify smoke plumes in real time. The system can detect fires at a very early stage, often before they become visible to the local authorities. Early detection has significantly improved response time.

Australia is using AI models that combine satellite imagery, temperature, wind speed, humidity and vegetation dryness to predict fire-prone zones in advance. This allows authorities to deploy personnel and equipment strategically before fires break out.

In parts of Europe, drones equipped with thermal imaging sensors patrol vulnerable forests during peak fire seasons. These drones can identify abnormal heat signatures even at night and in inaccessible terrain. Canada has also begun integrating AI-based monitoring with indigenous land management knowledge to improve fire resilience.

India has the scientific and technological capability to develop similar systems. The Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) already provides satellite-based forest fire alerts, but these remain largely reactive. AI can help shift the approach from reaction to early detection and prevention. At present the Isro model does fire detection and monitoring via satellite, this effectively detects and monitors forest fires in near real-time, improving identification speed and enabling better mapping of fire-prone areas. This system, however, has limitations, being primarily reactive. It lacks the capability to predict fire outbreaks and address underlying causes like dry conditions, human activity, and monoculture plantations.

The response capacity and the efficacy of alerts is exacerbated by the usually inadequate staff and resources of local forest departments. The satellite-based system has another limitation in fire detection because smaller fires under dense canopy or cloudy conditions can get missed. In order to achieve an effective early warning system, Isro needs to combine satellite data with weather forecasts, humidity levels, wind conditions, vegetation dryness indices, and include local community intelligence.

Countries having more effective management of forest fires use a multi-pronged approach, using drone surveillance, automated camera systems, and very importantly, the infrastructure to effectively record local responses . This integration of ground intelligence with satellite monitoring and AI-driven mapping of fire risks enables them to predict forest fires, not detect them after they have started burning.

India needs to up its act and improve its systems which should be easily done, given the solid foundation of Isro’s satellite proficiency. We need to integrate AI-based tools for predictive analytics and real-time ground integration. India’s system is technologically capable of detecting fires, but advanced global systems are increasingly focused on anticipating them before they become disasters. Involving forest-dwelling communities, drone surveillance, AI-based fire-risk prediction models, and stronger ground preparedness are crucial for a preventive approach to forest fire management. A national AI-driven Forest Fire Early Warning Grid should contain AI models predicting fire-prone districts weeks in advance, mobile alerts sent directly to village communities and forest guards and AI-generated evacuation and containment plans based on terrain and wind direction.

However, technology alone cannot protect forests. Indigenous and local communities possess deep ecological knowledge of forest behaviour, moisture cycles and safe fire practices. AI systems must work alongside community knowledge rather than replace it. We need to treat forest fire prevention as part of our climate adaptation strategy.

Investments in AI-based ecological monitoring today may prevent enormous ecological and economic losses tomorrow.

The Link to the article  - https://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/suman-sahai-forest-fires-on-the-rise-in-a-warming-india-make-it-part-of-climate-policy-1963375

Climate of threat to food security

Suman Sahai

Despite the fact that independent India has not had large-scale famines, widespread hunger prevails and is growing. According to official data, almost 87 per cent of rural India gets less than the minimum calorie requirement.

The decline in agricultural productivity, the diversion of foodgrains to feed poultry and livestock, policies that focus on export products and cash crops, as also inflationary food prices are contributing to a growing food crisis in the country. In addition, there is the proposed diversion of land and water to the production of Jatropha-based biofuels, the rapidly changing land use policy and the government’s support for special economic zones even when they encroach on prime agricultural land.

Economic reforms in India have led to disinvestment in the agriculture sector. This has adversely affected more than two-thirds of the population that is dependent on agriculture for its livelihood. Farmers themselves face hunger due to rising input costs and non-remunerative prices of farm products. There is no effective crop and livestock insurance to cover damage and credit is not available at reasonable rates.

Food availability has declined. Immediately after Independence, from the 1950s to 1964, it ranged between 140 and 170 kg per capita per annum. Between 1979 and 1994, it went up to 180 kg per capita per annum. After the reform period, foodgrain availability declined sharply to 150 kg per annum. There is a considerable shortfall in the actual requirement and availability of foodgrains. In the context of the current agrarian crisis, this trend poses a grave danger to communities already afflicted with hunger.

Adding to this already grim scenario is the new challenge of climate change. This year’s see-saw with the monsoon is a pre-runner of what awaits us ahead. According to climate estimates, agriculture in the productive areas of South Asia will be among the most adversely affected. As temperatures rise, the growing season is expected to shorten with decreases in agricultural productivity of up to 40 per cent. The worst brunt of climate change on food production will be borne by farmers in rain-fed areas.

Coping with the impact of climate change on agriculture will require careful management of resources like land, water and biodiversity. A large-scale public education and training programme is necessary to help farmers cope with the changes coming from global warming. Nothing in their experience has prepared them for the rapidly evolving, anthropogenic climate turbulence.

The disbanded extension service in the agriculture sector must be resumed urgently. Training and capacity building programmes must help to increase sensitivity to the problems that agriculture will face and understand its causes. At present, there is little understanding among rural communities about global warming and they are facing difficulties adjusting to the unpredictable changes that are throwing their long-held cropping patterns out of gear. The new extension service must be geared to teaching farmers how to adapt their agriculture to the new weather conditions that will negatively impact their food and livelihood security.

Not just farmers, it will be necessary to provide education and training to a range of actors. This would include policymakers, Panchayati Raj institutions, the banking sector, civil society groups, corporate executives and others, in the theory and practice of adapting agriculture to climate turbulence. Such capacity building will enable the successful adoption of adaptation strategies at policy and implementation levels.

There will have to be a fundamental strategy change in food production. Practices in agriculture will need to shift from intensive, mechanised, water-demanding agriculture to a more sustainable, conservative agriculture that grows crops using less water. “More crop per drop of water” is a strategy recommended to tackle drought. The same approach is applicable in a wider sense when addressing the challenges posed by global warming.

The first step in adapting agriculture to cope with climate change will be to diversify the farm production model to minimise risk and obtain the most benefits from available resources. Such sustainable models will have to include crops, livestock, poultry and where possible, fisheries and agro forestry.

As the monsoon rainfall gets reduced and more uncertain and receding glaciers reduce water flows in rivers, farmers must learn to make maximum use of available water. Rainwater harvesting and traditional water storage structures such as farm ponds, wells and tanks will have to be revived. Watershed development and catchment area recharge treatments to allow for aquifer replenishment will have to be undertaken on priority basis in all ecosystems. As rainfall becomes less reliable, water conserved in tanks, ponds and wells will provide life-saving irrigation to crops.

Soil management will need to focus on increasing organic matter to improve soil nutrition and water retention capacity, thus increasing crop productivity. The eco-system approach to agricultural production using crop rotation, maintaining an appropriate balance of soil nutrients and using an integrative and bio-organic approach to pest management will be effective in coping with rapidly changing farm conditions.

Contour bunding will be useful, especially in the hill areas, to increase water retention in terraced fields and improve crop productivity. It was a central component in regenerating degraded soils in Burkina Faso in West Africa and is credited with as much as a 40 per cent increase in agricultural production the first year after its implementation. Planting hedgerows of leguminous plants, especially in poor soils, which constitute the bulk of the soil in India, is important to fix nitrogen, prevent soil erosion and conserve soil moisture.

Mulching and other types of soil cover is helpful in arresting soil erosion and extending the availability of soil moisture. Mulching has the added benefit of reducing weed populations by up to 60 per cent, saving on weeding costs. None of these are rocket science but they are neglected in our policy and implementation plans. India’s strategy to deal with climate change, encapsulated in the National Action Plan on Climate Change lacks vision and offers no realistic solutions. We need urgently to come up with a policy and framework to protect our agriculture and food production from the onslaught of global warming.

The writer, chairperson of Gene Campaign, is a scientist and development activist. She can be reached at mail@genecampaign.org

Source : Deccan Chronicle, October 15, 2012