📌 Deforestation On Ground, Afforestation On Paper!

South Asia is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, droughts and extreme weather are already threatening water, agriculture and food security. The World Bank warns that climate change could sharply reduce living conditions for hundreds of millions of South Asians.

In such a situation, expanding and protecting green cover should be a national climate priority. Yet the CAG’s latest audit of the Green India Mission tells a disturbing story. Against a target of 1.4 million hectares of additional forest cover, only about 0.03 million hectares was achieved between 2015–16 and 2024–25. Resulting into a shortfall of approx. 98% (https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/green-india-mission-fell-short-by-98-in-increasing-forest-cover-cag-11912065). This should ideally be read a 100% only you know.

The Hasdeo-Arand landscape in Chhattisgarh is a particularly stark example. In June 2026, the environment ministry granted in-principle forest clearance for diversion of 1,742.6 hectares for the Kente Extension coal block, followed by environmental clearance later that month. The proposed Great Nicobar Island infrastructure project involves an integrated transshipment terminal, airport, township and associated development across a large area. Government documents record an in-principle approval for diversion of 130.75 sq km of forest land.

Moreover, between April 2023 and March 2026, 71,023 hectares of forest land was approved for diversion to non-forest purposes across the country. The reality it seems is that we are failing to create forests while continuing to sacrifice existing ones. Planting saplings cannot compensate for destroying mature, biodiverse natural forests. Climate policy must begin with protecting the forests we already have.

📌 Climate Impact on Forests!

The rich, natural forests of India were brought under “modern, scientific” forestry by the British in 1864. And with that the Indian tradition of seeing the forest as a community resource to be conserved and used sustainably was jettisoned. In its place came the commercial exploitation of the forest by the colonial rulers. Natural mixed forests used freely by locals for their personal needs and for incomes were replaced by commercial monocultures like teak, pine, and sal which were owned by the British.

Colonial exploitation of the forest was reversed when the Forest Rights Act, 2006 was enacted. This Act recognized that Adivasi and tribal communities as well as other traditional forest dwellers have the legal right to own, collect, use and sell minor forest produce, collectively known as Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) NTFPs include tendu leaves used for rolling bidis, mahua flowers and seeds, wild fruits and nuts, honey, tamarind, medicinal plants, herbs, bamboo and a variety of edible and useful forest products. For Adivasi and other forest-dwelling communities, these products have traditionally been part of their food, livelihoods and everyday lives.

But climate change is beginning to interfere with the seasonal and ecological processes on which these resources depend. A change in rainfall is affecting flowering so availability of Mahua flowers gets affected. Rising temperatures affect fruiting and seed production. Drought can reduce the availability of edible plants and wild fruits. Changes in temperature and moisture also affect major NTFPs such as honey and lac which are significant income sources for the tribal communities and forest dwellers.

These changes are already being felt .The forest may still be standing. Its canopy may even appear unchanged. But if the flowers do not bloom as before, if fruits become scarce, or if seasonal forest produce becomes unreliable, then the forest is no longer the livelihood supporting resource it used to be.

📍Climate Change Will Spike Wheat Prices

One of the frightening consequences of climate change is rapidly diminishing water availability. Glaciers melting, disturbed and weak monsoons and extreme heat causing drying up of surface water sources like lakes, ponds and tanks will lead to conditions of severe water stress in the coming years.

The impending water scarcity is a growing threat to global food production, particularly for crops that depend on rainfall rather than irrigation. Globally, 80% of the arable land is rainfed, that is unirrigated and dependent on the monsoon. Only 20% of the arable land is irrigated. In India the figures are 45% irrigated land and 55% rainfed land. Severe water stress is projected to result in reduced harvests accompanied by a spike in food prices in the market and hunger among the poorer sections of society. 

In a Danish study done at the Centre for Climate Change in Aarhus University, scientists found a clear correlation between the area affected by severe water scarcity and global wheat prices. They showed that in the years when large areas were under severe water stress, there was a corresponding increase in wheat prices. When there is not enough moisture in the soil during key growing periods, harvests are likely to fail and food prices therefore rise.

Climate model projections suggest that water scarcity will expand as global warming progresses. The Aarhus study predicts that a temperature increase of about 3°C could raise global wheat prices three times relative to 2010. The reason why global wheat prices are particularly linked to severe water stress is because in most regions of the world, the crop is grown under the least favorable soil moisture conditions. Top wheat producers in temperate countries like Russia, US, Canada and Australia are likely to see falling wheat harvests and rising prices in the global market. The problem these countries will face is that they do not have a substitute crop for wheat. 

India however can cope better with the heat and water stress challenges of climate change because it does have a potential alternative or supplement to wheat. It has many varieties of millets that can be trialled as supplementary crops in the wheat season. Millets withstand high heat and water stress much better than wheat, and they can be cultivated in a wide variety of soils. Blessed with a large genetic diversity in millets, India can indeed counter the climate damage to wheat production. I believe targeted research will yield high yielding, nutritious varieties of millets as substitutes/ supplements to the wheat crop. 

 📍India’s appalling rank on environmental health

Environmental scientists and researchers at Yale University and Columbia University bring out a major biennial report on the environmental health and environmental performance of countries. The 2026 report shows that India has been performing extraordinarily poorly on this matrix, ranking last (180th out of 180 countries studied) in 2022. It showed a sliver of improvement in 2024, ending up, still at the bottom at 176th out of 180. In 2026, it continued to remain at the bottom most step, 176th out of 177.

By any standard, that is an abysmal record. The report highlights an acute “development-versus-pollution” tension. India has tried to provide energy access to millions of people, relying heavily on coal with its attendant problems of deadly emissions leading to severe air pollution and shooting greenhouse gases. Other factors that were mentioned were poor biodiversity protection (small wonder given the scale at which we are destroying forests), and a sharp decline in looking after marine protected areas, as the primary reasons for the low ranking.  

It is embarrassing that instead of being self critical and trying to understand why our performance is so poor and how to fix it, the Indian Ministry of Environment has argued that the Yale-Columbia report is derived using “unscientific methods”. Really? Yale and Columbia with their record of top quality work on environmental issues out of world class labs, don’t know what they are talking about? And the pitiful occupants of our Environment Ministry have the academic excellence to challenge the work of some of the best universities in the world? A little humility and some introspection would be in order here.

The report: https://epi.yale.edu/region/2026/southern-asia 

 

📍Genetic Diversity is Important in Forests!

Anyone who has taken the train to Nainital or anywhere in the Kumaon Uttarakhand, will have alighted at the last train station of the route- Kathgodam. Look at that name carefully-Kath means wood in Hindi and Godam means godown. Kathgodam was named for the place where all the trees that were felled in the Kumaon region were stored for further transportation to wherever they were needed. Kathgodam in a manner of speaking, was the graveyard of the forests of the Kumaon region.

During the time of British rule, forests were seen only as a resource to be exploited, not anything of intrinsic value, as pools of diverse plants, animals, birds, insects, a whole range of biodiversity. They did not see forests as agents that modulate the local climate and least of all, that they were the homes of several indigenous communities. So the Brits engaged in large scale felling of natural forests for their commercial and industrial use, especially in the Himalayas and the Western Ghats, reducing rich forests to raw material. They planted monocultures largely of timber trees like Teak and Sal, as well as Pine for resin and fast growing Eucalyptus and Acacia for firewood. Colonial rule destroyed our biodiversity rich forests, altered native ecosystems and displaced indigenous

communities who relied on them for food, fodder, fuel and timber. 

Unfortunately, our own Forest Department took over the colonial legacy and continued to treat the forest largely as raw material, planting trees primarily for commercial use, so we have grown used to seeing uniform plantations as forests. All this is changing slowly but we need to emphasize over and over again that the forests are valuable for many reasons- modulating the climate, storing water, maintaining biodiversity as also their value to the lives of forest dwelling communities.

For forests to be forests, the varied genetic diversity they contain, must be protected and enabled to flourish. The genetic diversity in forests is key to their integrity, resilience and long-term ecosystem health. It is what provides the basis for tree populations to adapt to changing climates, resist invasive pests and survive environmental stressors like dry spells and excessive humidity.

Genetically uniform tree populations like in man-made plantations are highly vulnerable to pests and diseases. In contrast, genetically diverse populations contain many individuals with natural resistance, thus ensuring that the entire stand is not killed by a single pathogen as happened with genetically uniform potato farms in Ireland. The entire potato crop, the staple food of the Irish, got wiped out due to infestation by a fungus called Phytophthera infestans, This resulted in a famine in which about one million people died of starvation. Genetic diversity helps forests to adapt to climate turbulence because forests very often have to face rapid environmental shifts, like rising temperatures and prolonged droughts. A mixture of genetic profiles increases the likelihood that certain trees/plants will tolerate heatwaves and others will be able to cope with low water availability. This enables an overall survival of the forest even if it suffers some damage. 

From the aspect of commercial use, forestry programs are better off with greater genetic variability so that they can select trees to breed for desirable timber traits—such as faster growth rates, higher wood density, and straight trunks—without diminishing the overall stress resilience of the forest. Healthy genetic diversity with a variety of species is also essential to maintain the integrity of the forest and restore it if damage is inflicted. Reforestation programs have a higher chance of success if they have access to seeds from a diverse range of thriving, well adapted trees because these have high survival rates.

 

THE ROLE OF WOMEN IN CONSERVING GENETIC DIVERSITY

Women have traditionally played an important role in managing the genetic diversity in their regions, harvesting carefully, and allowing regeneration so that the resource base is sustained over generations. In many Asian societies, field operations like ploughing and marketing are done by men, and the selection and storage of seed, planting and weeding in fields, by women. Women generally use their knowledge of natural and biological resources to satisfy multiple household needs. They breed well-adapted varieties and develop sophisticated farming systems using a range of crop varieties, to ensure food and nutrition for the family. Their access to and use of genetic resources is unhindered and they succeed in making effective use of them for food, fodder, medicine and other essential products.

The transformation of agriculture to meet the needs of a globalizing market economy is contributing to the steady erosion of the biological resources and knowledge systems controlled by women. The trend towards monocultures and cash crops in a high input, intensive agriculture system, to produce crops on contract or for urban and export markets, is impacting negatively on women’s role in domestic and local arenas. 

Communities often have well-defined gender roles in plant and seed selection and storage. Traditionally women in Asia often use a variety of indigenous plants, trees and animals, and they have a direct stake in conservation. The Neem tree, for example, is used as a bactericidal agent in agriculture, in the household for storing food and to prevent infections. Women tend to take a lead role in preserving and conserving croplands, forests and other natural resources for perpetual use. Men are more likely to be involved in converting these resources into cash. Women are also often the traditional caretakers of genetic and species diversity in agriculture. Their knowledge of growing conditions and nutritional characteristics of various species trains them in seed selection and plant breeding. In many societies, it is women who are mainly responsible for this, as well as for seed exchange and preservation of local bio diversity, often gathering fruits and medicinal plants from forests for immediate use or for sale at local markets.

The ‘Convention of Biological Diversity’ (CBD), which affirms the sovereign rights of nations over their bio resources, calls for conservation of bio diversity, sustainable use of its components, and fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilisation of genetic resources. The CBD makes reference in the Preamble to the central role of women in conserving bio diversity and knowledge of plant properties: “Recognizing also the vital role that women play in the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity and affirming the need for the full participation of women at all levels of policy-making and implementation for biological diversity conservation”. ‘Agenda 21’, adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, also stresses the need to strengthen women’s involvement in national ecosystem management and control of environmental degradation. 

Other international plans of action have highlighted the critical role of gender in genetic resources conservation and sustainable utilisation. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) publication, ‘Gender – Key to Sustainability and Food Security’, states: “Rural women in developing countries hold the key to many of the planet’s agriculture systems for food production, seed selection, and protection of agro-bio diversity. Women using diverse wild and indigenous species often use home gardens as experimental plots.”

📍THE BITTER IRONY OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change alters rainfall patterns and temperature regimes. This in turn influences local water balance and disturbs the optimal cultivation period for particular crops, known as the Length of Growing Period or LGP. According to climate forecasts, land with good LGP will decrease by over 51 million hectare worldwide.

Adequate LGP is required to ensure that medium to long duration crops can successfully grow to maturity. Some crop varieties mature quickly and are ready for use in a shorter period (short duration varieties). Others, especially most cereals, require a longer duration to mature. When the LGP in an agro climatic zone is long, a variety of crops from short duration to long duration can be cultivated there throughout the growing season. This means higher food production. When on the other hand, the LGP contracts, the growing season is shortened, fewer crops can be cultivated thus reducing food production.

Most climate models predict large increases in the LGP of today’s temperate and arctic regions. This means that temperate regions that are currently one crop zones (growing just one crop per year) will become two crop zones (growing two crops per year), resulting in a doubling of food production there.

On the other hand, almost half the production potential of tropical countries like India could be lost. The biggest blow to food production is expected to come from the loss of multiple cropping zones. The worst hit areas are predicted to be those where favorable weather allows farmers to take two to three crops in a year. These areas are predicted to turn into single crop zones, where only one crop can be taken in a year because the LGP will have shrunk or shifted In a perverse irony, the develop/ temperate countries will experience an increase in agriculture production as temperate regions get warmer. 

The regions which because of their industrialization and huge emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) are responsible for wrecking the climate will actually end up being its beneficiaries. On the other hand, today’s developing world in the tropics, which has not contributed to creating this climate hazard, will be its worst victim, and will suffer a loss in agriculture productivity, with serious consequences for food availability and hunger.

We have seen for some years now how climate change is not just altering the Himalayan landscape; it is changing the disease profile of the mountains too. 

Warmer winters, shrinking snowfall and changing rainfall patterns have changed the ecosystem so radically that vector borne diseases practically unknown at higher altitudes till now are becoming increasingly visible. Mosquitoes carrying malaria, dengue and chikungunya are now able to survive in the warmer higher altitudes where these diseases were once rare. 

👉 In Jammu & Kashmir, dengue cases almost doubled from 1,709 in 2021 to 3,381 in 2025, while suspected chikungunya cases surged from 7 to 773 during the same period. Himachal Pradesh, which reported no chikungunya cases in 2021, recorded over 200 cases in 2025.

This should be a wake-up call. Mountain communities are now confronting new types of diseases and local health systems do not necessarily have the experience to deal with such outbreaks. Climate adaptation can no longer be viewed solely through the lens of infrastructure or disaster preparedness. Public health systems in the Himalayan states must adapt by strengthening disease surveillance, expanding diagnostic capacity, training healthcare personnel and preparing for outbreaks of dengue, malaria and other climate-triggered diseases.

The challenge does not end there; climate change is also eroding biodiversity, traditional crops and resilient farming systems that have sustained mountain communities for generations. As I have said repeatedly, agrobiodiversity and indigenous knowledge are among our strongest tools for coping with a rapidly changing climate.

There is a clear message here: climate change is no longer a thing of the future. It is rewriting the region's health, agriculture and ecological challenges. Our adaptation policies will have to keep pace with the rate of climate turbulence.

Forest Fires On The Rise In A Warming India: Make It Part Of Climate Policy

In the 405th report of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Science and Technology, Environment, Forests and Climate Change, the demand for grants included a section on Forest Fire Prevention and Management. This must be welcomed given the growing forest fires in India, especially in the mountain states.

India’s forests are increasingly vulnerable due to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells and extreme weather events. These are no longer abstract projections; they are now visible on the ground as devastating forest fires. Forests that were once naturally moist and resilient are now like tinderboxes.

Forest fires are now frequent and have a devastating impact on biodiversity, wildlife and the overall environment. Forests in Uttarakhand used to catch fire in the dry summer season every year, but now occur at other times as well. I have watched with despair fires as early as February and March, sometimes earlier. The forest department recorded over 60 fires in the February- March period, that scorched over 40 hectares of forest land. Repeated fires also weaken the regenerative capacity of forests, making them more vulnerable to future climate shocks.

Climate scientists have warned for decades if we can’t control global warming, wildfires will become more frequent and more intense. Now wildfires are becoming more and widespread, even in tropical rainforests, where they are not typical and are particularly damaging. Hotter, drier weather caused by climate change and poor land management create conditions for more frequent, larger and higher-intensity wildfires. In the heatwave of Summer 2026, large forest fires have become frequent, and have burnt large tracts in over 12 states — from Uttarakhand in the north, Gujarat in the west, to Andhra Pradesh in the south, with Madhya Pradesh being the worst-affected.

Focusing on the Himalayan belt, the standing committee recommended that the ministry develop a protocol to reduce and cope with forest fires using modern technologies, including satellites and drones for early detection and alerts, identifying the cause and nature of the fires, and the best way of dousing the flames. Even more welcome, the committee recommended adequate budgetary support to state governments to develop a proactive, AI and data-driven prevention and management approach to minimise ecological damage due to forest fires.

Traditional forest management systems are proving inadequate against the scale and speed of climate-driven fires. This is where Artificial Intelligence can become an important tool for timely action. Globally, AI is already being used for forest fire prediction and prevention. In California, the “Alert California” programme uses AI-enabled cameras and machine learning systems to identify smoke plumes in real time. The system can detect fires at a very early stage, often before they become visible to the local authorities. Early detection has significantly improved response time.

Australia is using AI models that combine satellite imagery, temperature, wind speed, humidity and vegetation dryness to predict fire-prone zones in advance. This allows authorities to deploy personnel and equipment strategically before fires break out.

In parts of Europe, drones equipped with thermal imaging sensors patrol vulnerable forests during peak fire seasons. These drones can identify abnormal heat signatures even at night and in inaccessible terrain. Canada has also begun integrating AI-based monitoring with indigenous land management knowledge to improve fire resilience.

India has the scientific and technological capability to develop similar systems. The Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) already provides satellite-based forest fire alerts, but these remain largely reactive. AI can help shift the approach from reaction to early detection and prevention. At present the Isro model does fire detection and monitoring via satellite, this effectively detects and monitors forest fires in near real-time, improving identification speed and enabling better mapping of fire-prone areas. This system, however, has limitations, being primarily reactive. It lacks the capability to predict fire outbreaks and address underlying causes like dry conditions, human activity, and monoculture plantations.

The response capacity and the efficacy of alerts is exacerbated by the usually inadequate staff and resources of local forest departments. The satellite-based system has another limitation in fire detection because smaller fires under dense canopy or cloudy conditions can get missed. In order to achieve an effective early warning system, Isro needs to combine satellite data with weather forecasts, humidity levels, wind conditions, vegetation dryness indices, and include local community intelligence.

Countries having more effective management of forest fires use a multi-pronged approach, using drone surveillance, automated camera systems, and very importantly, the infrastructure to effectively record local responses . This integration of ground intelligence with satellite monitoring and AI-driven mapping of fire risks enables them to predict forest fires, not detect them after they have started burning.

India needs to up its act and improve its systems which should be easily done, given the solid foundation of Isro’s satellite proficiency. We need to integrate AI-based tools for predictive analytics and real-time ground integration. India’s system is technologically capable of detecting fires, but advanced global systems are increasingly focused on anticipating them before they become disasters. Involving forest-dwelling communities, drone surveillance, AI-based fire-risk prediction models, and stronger ground preparedness are crucial for a preventive approach to forest fire management. A national AI-driven Forest Fire Early Warning Grid should contain AI models predicting fire-prone districts weeks in advance, mobile alerts sent directly to village communities and forest guards and AI-generated evacuation and containment plans based on terrain and wind direction.

However, technology alone cannot protect forests. Indigenous and local communities possess deep ecological knowledge of forest behaviour, moisture cycles and safe fire practices. AI systems must work alongside community knowledge rather than replace it. We need to treat forest fire prevention as part of our climate adaptation strategy.

Investments in AI-based ecological monitoring today may prevent enormous ecological and economic losses tomorrow.

The Link to the article  - https://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/suman-sahai-forest-fires-on-the-rise-in-a-warming-india-make-it-part-of-climate-policy-1963375