The Indian monsoon, the lifeblood of India’s very survival, has been wobbling for some years now. Climate change is responsible for the turbulence in the monsoon system which has existed, according to some estimates, for 25 million years. This system has been the bedrock of our agriculture, water security and livelihoods for millennia. When climate change begins to disrupt its timing and intensity, it is not simply a weather anomaly; it is a signal that is putting us on alert that the happy, secure systems that were built around the monsoon are becoming unreliable, that the earlier rhythm is disrupted and we must prepare urgently to deal with it.

Preparations to adapt to the new monsoon should have begun earlier. Any further delay in recognising its growing unpredictability will have very serious implications. Agriculture, water security and rural livelihoods are already under stress. We need urgently to establish climate resilient agriculture systems in different agro-climatic zones. We know what is required: greater genetic diversity in the field, both within crops and across the number and range of crops being planted; better soil management, water conservation and sustainable use etc.

Our preparedness to cope must improve quickly. Although the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has gotten much better at forecasting the monsoon’s vagaries and extreme weather events, these are of little use when authorities do not act on the warning and response remains tardy. Our infrastructure remains inadequate to deal with the changing conditions like the large volumes of water after a cloudburst. Our drainage and flood management systems belong to another era when the monsoon was the benign, predictable system we were familiar with. All that has changed. It’s high time we acted.

👉 A recent article by Murali Krishnan makes an interesting read. https://www.dw.com/en/disrupted-monsoons-force-india-to-face-climate-threat/a-78324753

📍THE BITTER IRONY OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change alters rainfall patterns and temperature regimes. This in turn influences local water balance and disturbs the optimal cultivation period for particular crops, known as the Length of Growing Period or LGP. According to climate forecasts, land with good LGP will decrease by over 51 million hectare worldwide.

Adequate LGP is required to ensure that medium to long duration crops can successfully grow to maturity. Some crop varieties mature quickly and are ready for use in a shorter period (short duration varieties). Others, especially most cereals, require a longer duration to mature. When the LGP in an agro climatic zone is long, a variety of crops from short duration to long duration can be cultivated there throughout the growing season. This means higher food production. When on the other hand, the LGP contracts, the growing season is shortened, fewer crops can be cultivated thus reducing food production.

Most climate models predict large increases in the LGP of today’s temperate and arctic regions. This means that temperate regions that are currently one crop zones (growing just one crop per year) will become two crop zones (growing two crops per year), resulting in a doubling of food production there.

On the other hand, almost half the production potential of tropical countries like India could be lost. The biggest blow to food production is expected to come from the loss of multiple cropping zones. The worst hit areas are predicted to be those where favorable weather allows farmers to take two to three crops in a year. These areas are predicted to turn into single crop zones, where only one crop can be taken in a year because the LGP will have shrunk or shifted In a perverse irony, the develop/ temperate countries will experience an increase in agriculture production as temperate regions get warmer. 

The regions which because of their industrialization and huge emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) are responsible for wrecking the climate will actually end up being its beneficiaries. On the other hand, today’s developing world in the tropics, which has not contributed to creating this climate hazard, will be its worst victim, and will suffer a loss in agriculture productivity, with serious consequences for food availability and hunger.